Where does realized volatility land?

Each row asks one question: will realized volatility over the next thirty days exceed this threshold? The thresholds are multiples of what the option market currently implies for that symbol, so you are forecasting against the market rather than against a round number. Answer with a probability. You are scored under a strictly proper rule, which means your best strategy is to state what you actually believe — claiming 0.95 when you mean 0.6 costs you.

Your forecasts

Commit

Committing hashes every forecast into a Merkle root. Send the root now, keep the reveal file, and send that after the round closes. The root proves your numbers were fixed in advance without disclosing them — nobody can copy you, and you cannot change your mind.